Hansen’s famous 1988 predictions were a complete fustercluck, so a few weeks ago realclimate dug up an obscure forecast Hansen made in 1981, while he was still doing science.
On the 42nd Earth Day, April 22, 2012, it’s time for a change. No more flowers and beach balls that look like the earth. In Christian theological terms, it is time for righteous anger and judgment on the way in which the continued willful destruction of the planet’s ecosystem is causing widespread suffering and loss.
Flying semi-trucks and 4 feet of hail should now be our visuals for Earth Day.
The first Earth Day in 1970 is credited as launching the environmental movement and the idea of global warming. In 2012, the planet is in terrible trouble, and so is the environmental movement.
Global warming projections from thirty years ago have proved to have been remarkably accurate. Yet, there has been a steady decline in the number of Americans who say they see solid evidence of global warming.
A new Earth Day theology – Guest Voices – The Washington Post
Pielke Sr. has been talking about this recently. Here’s one post; there’s others.
http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2012/04/13/cherrypicking-a-comment-on-the-atlantic-article-now-this-is-interesting-a-climate-prediction-from-1981-by-james-fallows/
P.S. — Glad you’re alive!
At least WaPo admits it is a religion which requires a theology.
I suspect that the reason they are promoting Hansen’s 1981 prediction is because his 1988 forecast was wrong by ~100%. Hansen’s 1988 predicted trend from 1988 to present was:
0.29°C/decade for Scenario A;
0.27°C/decade for Scenario B;
0.19°C/decade for Scenario C (“drastic” reduction in ghg forcing);
The ACTUAL measured temp trend from 1988 to present has been:
0.14°C/decade for UAH
0.14°C/decade for HadCRUt3
0.15°C/decade for RSS
0.16°C/decade for GISS
Hansen’s 1981 prediction was for 0.19°C/decade for 1981 to present.
The actual measured temp trend from 1981 to present has been 0.13°C/decade for UAH & RSS. So THIS prediction is only off by 50%! Still POOR!
A couple other things are worth noting.
1) Both Hansen’s 1988 & 1981 predictions called for increasing rate of temp change in 2011, but actual rate of temp change has been decreasing.
2) Hansen’s 1981 predictions were based on an older 1D climate model, while his 1988 predictions were made using a more up-to-date 3D climate model. So I guess what they have proved is that the models have been getting less accurate as they have been increasing in complexity!
Any way you look at it, Hansen’s climate models fail when tested against reality.
For a scientific prediction to have merit it can’t be about some sort of nebulous claim that the polar ice caps will start to melt, sea levels will rise and it will get warmer. You have to be a bit more specific than that. But even when making such nebulous claims it’s not clear that Hansen has done all that well. I.e., no expected acceleration in sea level rise, only one pole has shown some sea ice loss while the other has gained sea ice, and the temperature rise is around half of what he predicted 30 years ago. So even the nebulous claims are somewhat muddy.
Another nebulous scientific preposterous explanation …
Our universe is expanding.
As the universe expands it cools.
Earth is expanding and cooling as part of the universe.
Rapid greenhouse warming is just barely keeping pace.
So without the expansion, it really is warming even worse than Hansen says.
The Southern part of the Earth is expanding faster than the North, causing the melting imbalance.
The crust expands faster than water, causing the sea level to drop.
It has to do with the universal coefficient of expansion.
All of Hansen’s predictions are correct, they are just being concealed by the expansion.
This is also where the missing ocean heat is.
Everything is hidden in the inflation.
We’ll be in big trouble if the universe hits a brick wall out there.
Then our oceans really will boil.
Hansen is welcome to use this explanation, without crediting me, at his next public presentation. It will fit right in with the rest of his crap.
/n rīdiculōsus /