You can’t make this stuff up.
I’m going to tell you something that my Republican friends are loath to admit out loud: climate change is real.
I am not a climate scientist. I’m a meteorologist, and the weather maps I’m staring at are making me uncomfortable. No, you’re not imagining it: we’ve clicked into a new and almost foreign weather pattern.
He starts out his article with a photo from Apollo 17, in 1972 – and then he makes claims about changes in climate, without any actual knowledge of past climate.
Shawn Lawrence Otto | A Message from a Republican Meteorologist on Climate Change
This is what Time Magazine had to say about 1972 :
Another Ice Age?
Monday, June 24, 1974In Africa, drought continues for the sixth consecutive year, adding terribly to the toll of famine victims. During 1972 record rains in parts of the U.S., Pakistan and Japan caused some of the worst flooding in centuries. In Canada’s wheat belt, a particularly chilly and rainy spring has delayed planting and may well bring a disappointingly small harvest. Rainy Britain, on the other hand, has suffered from uncharacteristic dry spells the past few springs. A series of unusually cold winters has gripped the American Far West, while New England and northern Europe have recently experienced the mildest winters within anyone’s recollection.
Here is what the CIA had to say about 1972
Within a single year, (climate) adversity had visited almost every nation on the globe
www.climatemonitor.it/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/1974.pdf
Joe Bastardi knows this guy. This is what he has to say.
Joseph Bastardi | March 29, 2012 at 3:51 pm
Doug, since that is the name I knew you by in college:
http://policlimate.com/climate/cfsr_t2m_2011.png
temps since pdo flipbtw Doug, it will spike LOWER still this winter
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/amopdoustemp.jpg
link pdo/amo to temp
http://co2insanity.com/2011/09/04/top-scientists-in-heated-debate-over-‘-slaying-of-greenhouse-gas-theory/Nahle defense of me
http://www.tech-know.eu/uploads/Joe_Bastardi_is_Correct.pdfyear to date, globe
http://policlimate.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_ytd_anom.pngmarch, even with US heat wave
http://policlimate.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom.pngSo Doug, how long do you think this argument would last in Korea, or Alaska
finally since we are worried about the entire globe, global sea ice
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg
Now Doug, I want you to think back to thermodynamics. What is the relationship between cold dry air and warm moist energy as far as the energy budget? Do you understand that a 1 degree drop in temperature at a wet bulb of 80 has for more implication for the energy of the earth than a rise of 20 degrees where its 20 below. The warm pdo/amo combo warms the atmosphere.. the tropics warm.. This distorts the energy budget so the continents warm. and the northern ice cap shrinks. All logical.. raise the temp of the tropical pacific a degree and that air moving north, drying out will result in bigger temp rises since the energy is so much greater .
But what will happen when the PDO flips as it did 3 years ago? What happens when it goes from cold to warm, as it did in 1978 at the end of the cold pdo, when you were at PSU with me and the Ice age was the rage. So we are about to get our answer.. are the big drivers in control or the trace gas, less than .04% of the atmosphere, that humans contribute 5% to the 1.5 ppm, America 10% of that, which if the DOE figures are correct would be 7.5 ppbillion? I think if you do the math, or read the above papers, you would see it from another angle.
So here is a simple forecast wager..you and me okay. The old guy against the whipper snapper in the PSUweather tower. The global temp, as measured objectively by Satellite since 1978 when we started with objective measurements , will return to where it was in 1978 by 2030 ( if not sooner). Keep in mind, I was forced take meteo 461, instrumentation. I dont know if you took that course, or have the scars from all nighters trying to build and calibrate instruments, but the one thing about thermometers was that 90% or errors were them reading TOO WARM. Because anything makes them too warm, and THE COLDER IT IS, THE MORE THEY ARE SENSITIVE TO BEING WARMER! WHY because the energy to change the temp 5 degrees is nothing when its near 0 compared to where its 80. Since in your current life, as Paul Douglass you are in a place that is cold, I am sure you have noticed the wild swings in temps on a clear cold morning. The same amount of energy that changes the temp from 80 to 81 will change it from -15 to 0.. ( I may even be underestimating, our friend Jay Schlegal said it was a doubling of the buoyancy for every 20 degrees).
Now I am trusting the objective satellites over a) proxy tree rings ( btw did you know there is no hockey stick in China.. I wonder why
http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/graphs/china/liu-2011-tibet-tree-rings-2485-year.gif
and of course Anthony Watts report on US instruments is an eye opener
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/05/surfacestationsreport_spring09.pdfI hope if Paul Douglass choses not read, his viewers will, along with Doug Kruehoffer, who I think was one of the greatest forecasters I have ever met
But there are some things for you to read, not to change your mind, but to get you to understand that the heat wave we had was a) nothing nationwide compared to 1910 and b) covered 15% of the earth, while the rest of the land masses of the globe are cold.
cheers
JB
Go to it, Joe! An excellent reply to which thankfully I need add no more!
….this guy actually picked that picture?
Perhaps Mr. Douglas should take Algore, Hansen & Mann, et al, and have a sit-down with the Alaskan crab fishermen and tell them how terrible the “unprecendented loss of ice” is/was this winter? (I’d wager several months’ pay that they’d end up as bait in some of their crab pots.)
Damn…. I had a post on this but I never got to finish it….. but, yours and JB’s insights are better than I could have done.
I like his argument style….. “I am not a climate scientist. I’m a meteorologist…” that’s a rare and beautiful double appeal to authority!!! And then he blathers just about every meme the carbonphobes have ever spewed.
You people are trolls. Trolling the internet to spew Your pseudo science BS. Paul has been a meteorologist for over 30 years, and has started 7, count them, 7 companies all related to weather and green energy. What have you done with you lives? Go ahead and spout your anti climate, anti environment hate, the truth will bite you in the butt eventually.
Odd then that he doesn’t know much about past weather. How about March, 1910?
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/time-series/index.php?parameter=tmp&month=3&year=2011&filter=1&state=110&div=0
Interesting that he has a vested interest in green energy. Normally we call that a “conflict of interest”
“What have you done with you lives?”
We’ve thwarted to biggest human rights and civil liberties usurpation in the history of mankind. We’ve stopped the Malthusian Marxists from controlling the world’s energy use. We continue to convince more and more people that the carbonphobia expressed by doomsayers is an irrational fear driven by ignorance and superstition.
We are largely responsible for the world’s economic recovery and the continued advancement of the human condition of the people in third world nations.
We’ve still got a lot of work to do, and we’ll never be totally rid of parasites and totalitarians such as yourself, but we continue to make progress on this front.
Touche’ Doesn’t get bigger than that.
No doubt, I think, from time to time, we should take a look back, recognize how close to the precipice we got, and how we’re now moving back away from it and congratulate ourselves.
Would be nice to take credit but I expect it has to do more with unprecedented levels of ‘forcing’ and a conspicuous lack of warming for 10-15 years.
“You people are trolls.”………
The preceding public service announcement was brought to you by WeatherNation…………
Erin, you are a moron…….
…Paul Douglas profits from global warming scare mongering
I don’t know anyone who is anti climate or anti environment.
Lol, I’m holding up my placard on the street corner screaming “Booo climate!!! Down with the environment!!!! Just say no to atmosphere!!!! Booo climate!!!” Yeppers, Imma hating on the environment!!!
Peolple like Erin are walking, talking absurdities.
“Intellectual baby-talk” was Lord Monckton’s apt description
How many times have I told you to stop taking my “Booo climate!!! Down with the environment!!!! Just say no to atmosphere!!!!” placard?
You left out “climate criminals” & “climate deniers”
Come on, be creative! Let’s have some real nonsense:
“Earth Deniers”
“Space Devastators”
“Helio-Centrists”
“Dual-Climate-Zone Controllers” (prepend Evil if it makes you happier)
“Cable-Ready Pseudo-Manikins[sic]”
“Fighter Moose Clime Buggerers”
Erin, you insufferable, ignorant, useful idiot, many of us “climate trolls” actually work in the conservation field. You’ll note that I didn’t use “environmental”, as that term as been usurped by the Urf First!/Green Piss Marxists Utopians. I happen to work in a field where my main job is to return carbon that’s been locked up inside various forms of plant matter to its rightful place in the atmosphere and/or soil, thus continuing the natural “carbon cycle” that the “experts” of the early 20th century so “expertly” interrupted with their wildfire suppression “consensus”.
If you bother coming back to read the responses to your idiocy, here’s a question that I’ve been asking of your ilk for well over a decade that has, NOT ONCE, been answered:
“Tell us, without qualifiers and prevarication, precisely what it was that caused, in the blink of a geological eye, a 1.5-2.0-mile thick sheet of ice that covered a good portion of the Northern Hemisphere, to melt and why the same process(es) could not possibly be in play with the supposed “unprecedented warming” that has taken place since the Little Ice Age?”
We’ll be waiting, with bated breath, of course, for your eye-opening explanation…
Keep up the good work and well said.
….”Anti climate”? Can you translate that from Green Foo Foo into plain English? WTF does that mean?
Name Changer DougPaul is somehow also a Green Komrade RINO poser. What’s with this Lib tendency to run from past Identities? If he were changing Barry to Soebarkah, then Barack Hussein, Atilla, and THEN Paul maybe I could see it.
And I’m with Lat, Dougie should ease up on the sugar in that photo.
Thirty years of science here, chemistry PhD and over 50 publications. I do real science. I can read science data.
No Erin, sorry, if you look at all of the peer reviewed science it is not the story you have been reading, especially the science that has come out in the last year or two.
When you have people like U.R.Rao showing last year that half of 20th C warming was due to GCR’s (and he is probably the premier scientist in India), and Lindzen-Choi determining 2XCO2 at around 0.7 C (which is what I get via a different longer term method) you have a firm hypothesis: CO2 is responsible for maybe 1/6th of warming in the 20th C, which is so little that we could burn all extractable fossil fuel and still stay below 2 C temperature increase.
Ideology does not make true science. I’m sorry.
Guess what, the guy is not named Paul, he is Doug Kruehoffer and was a FRESHMAN when I graduated PSU in meteorology
So you are wrong about “Paul” since no Paul Douglass ever graduated from PSU.
Now I never changed my name, and I look at data. My advise is for you to also, its all there
“7 companies all related to weather and green energy.” -Erin
Erin, Our boy, Dougie, does have seven or so companies, but they’re all related to media, weather broadcasting, weather computer imaging, and weather related software apps. theres nothing about “green energy”. Dougy is a media maven. Alarmism pays. He also rubs elbows with Steven Speilbergs and Dan Rathers of the world.
EarthWatch Communications
WeatherNation (as CEO),
Broadcast Weather (as CEO)
Smart Energy
SingularLogic LLC,
NoozMe
Digital Cyclone
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Douglas_(meteorologist)
Douglas regularly writes and speaks about global warming and is critical of those who say that it is not occurring or is not caused by human actions.
I checked Otto’s bio and he shows absolute zilch in the way of scientific credentials with respect to his background.
Otto is entitled to opinion. He can claim to be anything he wants to be. He can claim he is a Black Panther for all I care.
My take is that Otto is another prototypical media pretty boy that knows where his bread is buttered. He is simply spewing the prefabricated drivel that all alarmists spew.
Erin says that he is founder of several green energy companies. He has a vested interest in scaring people about the climate.
Don’t be so hard on the “Greenies!” There is a positive side to resource conservation and “Carbon” management. Its when they try to couple it to Climate that their reasoning moves into the near side of spurious. Using Oil, Gas, Coal effectively should be everyone’s goal, but CO2 as a driver of climate is clearly a non-starter, as albedo had overtaken its effect, and the seasonal albedo increase in the last 20 years has been huge, particularly over the NH.
Now let this sink in: When snow cover forms earlier and melts later, the EFFECTIVE CO2, CH4, and water vapor over that area drops to almost ZERO, as incoming solar radiation pierces through the greenhouse gasses on the way down. Instead of converting to longer wavelengths upon ground contact, and then get “heat trapped,” they reflect off and out of the atmosphere, at the same incoming wavelengths. The same wavelengths that pierced the greenhouse gasses on the way down, do so on the way up. If 1/7 of the NH is covered with snow in a given month, then the EFFECTIVE CO2 over the planet is 335ppm for that month. Of course, during polar night that number diminishes, and the proportion is governed by how much snow cover is exposed to sunlight. Still, this should make the 350 crowd celebrate, but more importantly, may well be one of the answers in the temperature flatline scenario for the past 15 years!
Time to “Fess up” for an exaggerated “paper napkin” calculation that overstated the facts.
After a few back and forth e-mail exchanges with John Nielsen-Gammon, who correctly held my feet to the fire, he sent the following e-mail, which I’ve truncated yet repeat exactly:
=====
How about this for common ground:
Most* of the solar radiation striking snow is reflected back into space and never gets incorporated into the Earth’s climate system. Thus, the energy from that solar radiation never gets to interact with CO2 and other greenhouse gases, and because of that reflection the snow-covered ground is a bit colder as a result.
— but —
The snow cover is still emitting infrared radiation, and that radiation is interacting with CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the usual way, so it’s not correct to say that the effective CO2 over that area has dropped to almost zero. Indeed, since CO2 doesn’t interact directly with solar radiation in the first place, it’s playing the same role** over snow-covered land as it plays everywhere else on the Earth.
(To agree with this, you’d also have to agree that your original paragraph was wrong…)
Footnotes:
*Ice and snow are not perfect reflectors. Also, the atmosphere (oxygen, water vapor, clouds) does absorb some visible radiation, and gets a second bite of the apple when that radiation is reflected from Earth. So a nontrivial fraction of the solar radiation doesn’t leave the climate system after all.
=====
Of course, my use of “ZERO” in the original post was a red flag, and I thus I overstated the effect of albedo, yet can agree with the revision above. The effect of albedo, though not as great as originally stated, remains to alter the total heat budget of the planet, in proportion to any increase in snow or cloud cover, and the growth of cloud, snow, and ice albedo plays a role in the world temperature “flatline” for the past 15 years that I refer to at: http://www.colderside.com/Colderside/Temp_%26_CO2.html (even with still rising sea-surface temperatures).
I will add this to the related blog post. A result of working with and amongst the best!!!
(To agree with this, you’d also have to agree that your original paragraph was wrong…)
No, neither we nor he need agree that. Reflected solar radiation is short-wave visible and IR, but some is absorbed by water-vapour; radiated IR is long-wave and some is absorbed by all GHGs.
Correct! And the greater the albedo, the more energy that does not enter the planetary heat budget.
More proof that the climate changes according to the orbital ‘Dry’ Cycles identified and forecast by Alex S. Gaddes in his book ‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ (1990.) Following Europe (at 30degrees/month longitudinally with the Westward Solar Orbit of the Earth’s Magnetic field,)the U.S. is in for a Two Solar/Earth Year ‘Wet’/Normal Period, followed by a severe Five Solar/Earth Year ‘Dry’ Cycle (Australia, 2015 – 19) The current One Solar/Earth Year ‘Dry’ Cycle still has around four months to go in U.S. and nine months to go in Australia. An updated version of the above work (with ‘Dry’ Cycle forecasts to 2055,) is available as a free pdf from [email protected]
I tore into the NOAA loss damage chart at the top of the article and provided Roger Pielke Jr.’s research on “normalized” loss damage showing no attribution to humans/CO2 in the loss damage data, which is now being recognized in the latest IPCC update. I also hit him with the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project study which shows no human attribution in 131 years of extremely detailed weather/climate information.
I got snipped. When I saw Mandia, Rabbett, Anderson and Lack show up in comments I knew then Paul Douglas was not some out of the closet conservative warmist. It’s staged bullsh_t. A quick check of Douglas’s web site confirmed that he had been a warmist promoting warming openly for quite some time. For these idiots in the comments who were congratulating Douglas on seeing the light, it would be like congratulating Marx for finally accepting socialism after Marx had published a dozen books promoting socialism over a ten year period. lol
“You people are trolls.”………
Beep
“That’s one small step for Man, one giant foot in mouth for mankind!”
Beep
That image is fake, it even loks fake; trust an AGW fanatic to choose it:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=3020
To mark the 30th anniversary of the Apollo 17 mission and the famous “Blue Marble” full Earth image, Goddard Space Flight Center’s Visualization and Analysis Lab has rendered a new visualization inspired by the mission.
Quiz question: When does earth have no clouds?
A. In NASA visualizations (and models too I shouldn’t wonder).
Another thing that blows sugar boy’s cover is the comment: “I’m going to tell you something that my Republican friends are loath to admit out loud: climate change is real.”
Anyone who understands true Conservatives understands that we aren’t “loath to admit” anything. We REJECT the Eco Wacko Bullsh*t.
And the phrase “Climate Change is real” is another giveaway. Cult Ideology hoping to piggyback unnoticed aboard a natural phenomenon.
No doubt…… climate change is for realz!!! What conservative out there has ever stated that the climate does not change?
It’s the lunatic left which insists it isn’t suppose to.
Excellent point… right or wrong sceptics don’t secretly believe in catastrophic climate change theory, but are ‘loath to admit it’. They actually think its bullshit.
Sorry!
I do not think it is Bulshit!
I Flippin KNOW it is BULL, no thinking about it.
There was a second part to my response, so I can make sure you know how I arrived at those figures of US contribution of 7.5 ppBILLION a year… here it is:
Bastardi again
Paul Douglass, as he is known on TV, when I knew him was one of the best young forecasters I had ever seen. This is not a knock on his skill, not even a knock on him. Its to alert him to things he may not have looked at and ask for an explanation. Since I will be attacked by the leftist blogs ( they love my name, Bastardi, which I did not change cause it sounded cooler than Smith) I do want to show you where I got the figures on how much co2 is human caused.. its from DOE the increase in the 1990s
you can see human caused is much less than nature , nature being 770,000, humans 23,100. Naturally the left wants you to think that the 11,000 annual all comes out of the 23,100…absurd given the over 20 to 1 ratio nature over man made
http://firsthandweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/greenhouse.png
Now since that time here is what co2 has done against the temps..
http://firsthandweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/co2-AM1.png
Now there is a great natural explanation for this. The Pacific went into a warm PDO in 1978, the atlantic in the early 90s. The combination of the two added heat.. no doubt (explanation above) but once they had reached their warmest points, no more heat can be added. It like a flood, if the water is high,for it to get higher it has to rain even harder, once to a certain point.
Now dear reader, what happens when the pacific turns colder and then the atlantic. Well we are going to get our answer soon enough, as its starting now. Again the temps since the PDO turned colder
http://policlimate.com/climate/cfsr_t2m_2011.png
BUT IN THE MEANTIME CO2 IS RISING THE TEMPERATURE IS NOW In fact we can no test the hypothesis since you can not run from the objective data unless you fear its results! In the meantime, the conclusion as of now was that co2 rising is coincidental, not the cause of the temperature rise and the coming 2 decades will prove the natural cyclical theory to be correct. Global conclusions based on warmth in your back yard, especially when the data shows the globe cooler, are simply wrong.
You all missed it! The caption below the picture of F-18 jet fighters. It reads
America 2.0. The Best Way to Predict the Future? Invent It
At last – Dougie introduced the topic of climate models! He then goes on to say
“The Navy is serious about renewables and alternative fuels. Because it’s the best way forward – protecting our troops, securing supply lines, creating economies of scale that will make biofuels more competitive, leaving the Navy less vulnerable to price shocks in the oil markets.”
“Less vulnerable ” to paying EIGHT times the price for bio than for standard diesel? That must have come as a shock, especially as it has to be flown, rather than tankered to Afghanistan, further adding to the cost.
Was he trying to impress his liberal buddies for some doggie treats?
Ahh, so Joe knows this guy and that makes his comments relevant?
Brilliant article by Paul trying to shut up the hypocrisy of science versus politics.
It’s a conflict of interest and a bias for Paul to have 7 ‘green companies’ but somehow, Joe, who profits off the back of the profits from the carbon spewers is OK? The filthy money flowing back and forth amongst all parties involved is enough to choke this earth before any kind of continued temperature spike. The whole thing has become disgustingly based on greed; people or the Earth be damned. The venom spewed by Bastardi on his FBN appearances (literally is spitting with anger while screaming his rage against AGW and warmingistas as he puts it) is nothing more than a political rant to save the ‘carbon’ business…paid for it too! Right?
You know what, lets say AGW wasn’t real and all of Bastardi’s specifically picked data proves Paul’s data wrong. WTF is wrong with developing new sources of energy for the Earth? Isn’t that a good thing for everyone? Oh right, the strong arm of the oil industry gets involved b/c profits might drop.
Hey Joe, get out of climatology and stick to meteorology, though you’re not too good at that either based on following your forecasts for the last decade. Maybe that’s because your own bias forces you to wishcast what you want and need others to hear. I bet you’d be a pretty good meteorologist if you weren’t in anyone’s pockets or politically involved which NO scientist should be, including Paul.
Your rant is a typical alarmist straw man.
Paul’s statements about unprecedented heat are incorrect. 2012 temperatures have been below the 30 year mean globally, and March 2012 temperatures have been about the same as March 1910 temperatures in the US.
No matter how you feel about wasting money on useless forms of energy, it is off-topic.
Heh real weather
no meteorologist worth his salt doesnt dig into climo because if Doug understood what happened before he would not be saying the things he is saying
I was raised by a meteorologist father who had me constantly looking at climo books, constantly drilling into me the idea to know the future, you must know the past, not stare at models or shut your eyes to the rest of the globe. You people scream global this and global that, then when a heat wave comes along while the rest of the world is cold AS I SHOWED WITH ACTUAL DATA, you ignore 90% to fit your own world. Its delusional, and the jig is up, and that is why we see the desperation coming forth, the calls for trials and the idea that people that actually look at data, come to the logical conclusion based on it, and dissent, somehow are the sick ones.
I get a kick out of you telling me I am wrong. Look at the sea ice, even the northern hemisphere is on top of normal 20 years before I thought it would get back there.. oops too slow, you were right. The global temp is doing exactly what I said in 2008 on the Oreilly factor, when the first fits were thrown be Media matters and romm cause I had the triple crown of cooling up, stating the obvious, that oceans, the sun, and volcanic activity control the climate, not a gas that is HEAVIER THAN AIR, HEATS AND COOLS FASTER THAN AIR, HAS DIFFERENT RADIATION RATES THAN AIR, is 1/400th of the greenhouse gasses ( I guess Gore figured he couldnt cap and trade water vapor) and is only .04% of the air. So what exactly in the data, that I didnt make up, but simply used from objective sources, do you deny? Thats right deny, its you guys in denial, cause alot of you know your little charade is up over the next 20 years,cause I suspect alot of the people supporting this need this rushed to a close cause they see what is coming as well as I do. .cooling and more cooling.. Just what in those links, which I didnt make up, but are factual from objective sources, are you in denial over. How do you simply attack me for a forecast that is right, the earths temp is clearly at least leveled off and the last 3 years is falling, and you tell me I dont know what I am talking about.
better do some research on dunning kruger cause it fits you perfectly. Your confidence is from ignorance. I know Kreuhoffer is unaware of what went on in the 30s 40s and 50s in this country, from hurricanes to heat, cause he would not have made the bonehead, and thats what they are, statements he made if he simply looked at the facts of how bad things, were in this country when we went into a similar pattern
As for you, the facts are there, the links are there. I didnt make them up, but I sure as heck can confront reality. The reality is co2 is not driving the planets weather. If you understood how tiny it is as far as the heat capacity of not only the air, but the ocean which is much greater than it, you would open your eyes
I am amazed. You can show every single fact, be as objective and even handed as possible, and its still the same with this bunch. I understand now what went on in Europe before world war 2 and how whole populations were brainwashed and turned into like minded sheep. We see it here in the agw crowd. Not only are we seeing weather like we saw then, but the same kind of
mentality that has lead to misery when one group of people that think they know better tries to impose their will on another group. In the end, that is your agenda
by the way, real weather guy, I am all for alternative energy as I have said on FBN almost every time I am on there. This is how you show your ignorance. Do you realize how great wind and solar power is for a meteorologist? Its much more profitable. And it shows me how you are simply a liar. I have said time and time again, that economically, wind and solar power, because THEY RELY ON THE WEATHER ON SITE is more profitable. The only thing that affects a gulf oil rig is a hurricane. 15 mph winds vs 5 mph winds mean nothing to them, Cloudy vs sunny , nothing. But to wind and solar, they are everything. I suspect Doug or Paul or whatever knows that, and understands that is where the big money is.. IF IT ACTUALLY WORKED. I think there will come a day it will work, and I want that day sooner, not later, but not by shoving it down peoples throat. In fact I like the idea of people outfitting their own houses with wind and solar equipment, given you more control over your own energy! But right there you see what this is about.. individual control of ones life, and the weather. This is not about money with me. its about doing the work and nailing a forecast. And I will be darned, when I watch co2 go up while the earths temp levels off and now since the pdo flip starts its fall, to sit here and let guys like you get away with what you are saying.
So knock it off. There is no bigger supporter in this country for ALL ENERGY to lower costs and lead to a better life for all of us. Nuclear, NG, solar, wind, eating cheetos and snapping your fingers I dont give a hoot. But perpetrating a scam on the American public and trying to force them into a box they cant get out of, well its clear which side you are on
There’s two people I know….that are the champions of “step back and let them go” rants…..
…the other one is James……….LOL
The “carbon business” LOL…. As if CO2 is some sort of horrible pollutant. In actuality, CO2 is necessary for life on this planet, and fossil fuels have provided energy for billions. Now there are some people who want to deprive the developing nations with that same basic necessity, and have people in the developed world pay more for energy.
Guess what, fossils will be used energy and fuel for as long as it is the cheapest source.
Joe, I had no idea that Big Oil was lining your pockets! You must have Billions by now. Exxon, if you’re out there, call me!
Interesting. Both replies throw in a good deal of cherry-picked science for your ‘ideas’ (admittedly credible) but it all boiled down to political anger and conclusions. All the other science, pictures and actual visual facts of what is happening to the globe don’t apply. What do you fear? That your rights are being taken away because people don’t want the next generation or the next one or maybe not even until the next one, to die from an inhabitable planet? Sure doesn’t sound like science applies to that argument.
Did I say anything meteorologically about this past winter? Nowhere did I indicate gw or cc is responsible for the unprecedented warmth in the US this winter…nor even blamed the historic and deadly cold on it either, did I. People like you are just screaming louder than ever after this US winter because you’re afraid of losing your grip and your stand in the mud. Lets agree that a majority of people are inherently stupid when it comes to science or the climate around them. That’s why more people now believe GW is real again; all for the wrong reason. But is it real? You bet it is and not once fact you presented can refute the global temps are up. It’s what the future holds that we are all in disagreement. And that’s when it becomes a political football because we have false idols from both sides preaching to us to ‘come to our side’ and never let real facts get in the way of a good scientific argument….
And here’s where all the arguments fall flat climatologically and meteorollgically. Believers in the past (as you stated you like to look at) and analogs will never predict the future (and don’t throw the line ‘nor will climate models’ at me at this point- your beloved euro and jma can’t even predict a week in advance anymore. I get it. The science of meteorology continues to move backwards as we continue to try to make longer and longer range forecasts). Analog forecasting is junk meteorology. NEVER will a pattern or all its idiosyncrasies be exact enough to forecast an upcoming season. No two patterns are ever exactly alike. One minor detail missing or added, and the house of cards comes crashing down like this past winter’s forecast. So everyone please stop saying how hot it was in 1910 or before the industrial revolution or whatever time frame you want to pick to support your theory that the earth will cool again. Never before has the Earth reacted the way it is now. Never before have there been so many new parameters added to the mix. So relying on the past is absurd to predict the future. Does that mean the climate models know any better? Of course not. Does that bolster your co2 theories? No, it doesn’t either. But something IS going on and the longer you deny it for your own political agenda and those around you that you work with and support, rather than compromise, the more dangerous it becomes to hear you spew venom at those who are suggesting we do something.
You have no idea what you are talking about. You claim that this past winter had unprecedented warmth in the US, but NCDC says that there were three warmer winters in the US, and this past winter was barely warmer than the winters of 1953 and 1954.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/na.html
You are a typical useful idiot, relying on inaccurate hearsay from people wanting to manipulate you. Go check out the facts for yourself – stop listening to scumbags.
I hope this one comes back. Such Amusement.
heh how can you avoid cherry picking with an orchard that has nothing but data that supports you
Does anything phase you. every single metric the last 3 yrs has gone opposite of your forecast. There has been no rise according to satellites since the the mid 90s and for good reason, the atmosphere adjusted to the warm pdo and amo, and now will go the other way. There is no permanent hansen El nino, quite the opposite, and the same thing that happened in the 50s is happening now . What is bizarre is you seem to not want to test my assertion that we will have our answer soon, since a continued leveling off and falling of the global temps during a cold pdo means co2 can not be doing this. If you are so confident, whats the big deal. The planet is no warmer than 15 years ago. There is no trapping hot spot at 400 mb ( record cold at that level,btw recently, and that is the real damming evidence) Oh wait a minute, your answer would be it would have fallen faster if it does, but humans kept it warmer
Here is a morsel for you, so you can get ready to gloat.
The next 3 -4months , globally, even though the US midwest and lakes will have a cool summer, you will be able to use the global temp as its going to be .25 or so ABOVE NORMAL so you can see like the drop I forecasted last May for the global temps that we actually had, and the sea ice rise ( its now slightly above normal globally) I am making a forecast. So in 3 months you can come back and tell me I was right about the uptick in global temps, which is a response to the drop we just had, but it wont be as warm as last years uptick or the year before. And unfortunately, a bigger downturn is coming in the fall than last year and the climate models are actually seeing it.
So a forecast has been made. but lets just watch and see who actually is looking at this globally, rather than in the back yard
better warn Paul.. enough cold is coming to the the plains and midwest to cause problems with early growth. This was something at Weatherbell Joe D and I put out in late Feb after we called for a TOP 5 WARM MARCH, which most people did not catch on to till it evolved. ( MJO in strong phase 6 and 7 promotes that)
I am sure if it does get cold, it will be back to climate change or disruption, rather than warming
Nobody’s manipulated me Mr Goddard. I’m not even an active AGW alarmist. I just believe what I’ve seen with my own eyes on the Earth around me and the facts to back it up. At this time, I have no conclusion as to where we are going and no where have I stated that man is the root of all evil. But from those in fear that this is all a hoax to redistribute the wealth, I expected nothing less than picking apart a word or phrase out of context to bash a given factually correct occurrence. I dare you to stand there and tell me unprecedented weather phenomena hasn’t occurred in the US, if not the globe, in the last 4 months.
Tell me what you remember seeing during the Dust Bowl, when 80% of the country was experiencing drought.
Besides the unprecedented drought, February 1936 was the coldest month on record in the US, and July 1936 was the hottest. 1935 had the worst Tornado in US history. Tell us what you remember about that time.
@realwxinfo” I dare you to stand there and tell me unprecedented weather phenomena hasn’t occurred in the US, if not the globe, in the last 4 months.”
OK, here goes. Unprecedented weather phenomena hasn’t occurred in the U.S., if not the globe, in the last 4 months. By the way, I was sitting when I told you.
P.S. Were you born yesterday?
OH MY GOD…………
unprecedented weather phenomena in the last 4 months
….what a moron
I have to jump on this also.
I am sitting down but I will stand up and say it then sit back down and type it.
The only thing Unprecedented is the BS about the weather being Unprecedented.
We ave experienced relatively mild weather compared to conditions that have been recorded in history of many peoples around the earth and even milder weather conditions than are recorded in the geological records.
Only total morons claim mild weather patterns are dangerous.
well….
We finally get a decent winter….
….something we used to celebrate
…and the morons tell us we’re all going to die because we didn’t freeze our butts off, have ice storms, snow storms
What a bunch of losers
Sorry for achieving what I fully expected. I didn’t think a normal discourse could be achieved on here. As Bugs Bunny (one of your heroes favorites) once said ” I cannot compete no more against such genius.
no offense, but what is cherry picking about simply taking what Doug Kruehoffer says, and showing GLOBALLY its the opposite. He is talking about the heat wave right? He is talking about the warm winter. Or is he talking about our cold winter last year. Or how the snowy winter the year before was a sign of warmer. But the article came out in reference to how warm it is, and all I did was merely point out that in only 15% of the land mass of the globe could he make that claim, the rest was colder. And all I am pointing out is that all the metrics used.. sea ice, co2 rise vs temps the last 17 years since climate cycle theory would say we are leveling off, all those run counter to what he is saying. After all the IPCC had this:
http://clivebest.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/normalised.png
there it is co2 up, all ipcc scenarios too warm, and that does not included this years drop. But I played fair, challenging Doug with the facts about this situation.
Nor did I bring up Hansens debacle that started alot of this
http://www.skepticalscience.com/hansen-1988-prediction-advanced.htm
no I played nice and stuck with evaluating the current and btw, predictable trends and pointed out that Douglass, or as I knew him, Doug Kruehoffer, was apparently not looking at the entire picture to make his point.
And you are right, it doesnt take a genius to see that by any metric, we are well under the IPCC forecasts and thankfully will now see whether c02 is a factor ( you would agree temps would have to rise over the next decade if it is) or the idea of alot of us, that the major physical drivers are in control has merit.
So at least we will get an answer.
one of the problems with this cherry picking.. there are so many cherries to pick. Facts that run counter to this is more like an orchard.
Why don’t you tell us your real name?
Alex S. Gaddes was very careful to project exact forecasts of ‘Dry’ Cycles in his book ‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ (1990.) For example he redefined an exact value of 11.o28148 years for the Sunspot Cycle, because the accepted 11.1 year value did not work exactly in the equation. Using this Formula (he termed it The Ratios Principle,) ‘Dry’ Cycles can be extrapolated back into history as far as one likes, as well as forward into the future as far as one likes, thus making it easily verifiable and impossible to fudge. I invite realwxinfo (and other ‘protagonists’) to read this work and deny the efficacy of it if he/they can. An updated version (with ‘Dry’ Cycle forecasts to 2055,) is available as a free pdf from [email protected]
Im an aerospace engineer. Watching all of you tools with meteorology and arts degrees debate with cut and paste arguments is highly amusing.
For you inferior bankers and other inferiors that have no understanding of science, gases, or other r-tards that didnt even go past ordinary differential equations in college: you have nothing useful to say because you dont even know that heat is NOT temperature. You also dont understand how to even derive the total energy equation for a gas so you literally are beneath me and should not discuss or vote on any climate issues. The fact is that adding mass, especially insular mass, like carbon, to the atmosphere adds energy and slows heat transfer. This is not a hpothesis nor a theory but a fact. Energy is then added by the sun while less escapes, increasing net energy held within the atmosphere. That energy then manifests itself to us as energy kinetic(storms) or heat as temperature increase or as melting ice. Greenland and Britain will likely add ice as increasing storms make it up the gulf stream and dump sh#$ tons of snow there. Temperature increase is NOT the most visible sign of global climate change as increased heat is absorbed during evaporation and increased wind speeds. You retards got your skeptical answer from you former hero who just concluded that thos process is man made. Then you discredit your once skeptical hero is now a believer in the facts. You are all an embarrassment to social conservatives like me who are constantly having to prove that not all christian conservatives are idiots. Yes, there is well deserved ad hominem for all of you. Because you are still denying the scientific facts that temperature and snowfall alone say d$%& about climate change. It should be called “global energy differential change” but you idiots would still deny it and ostracize any conservative scientist who truthfully adrresses the issue. Your politics is a team ideology and not a factual conversation. You truly are the filth of the earth in my opinion an
I see, so the warm weather in Illinois this winter explains the extensive snow cover they experienced.
Are all alarmists as psychotic as you?
No. Warm or cold weather means nothing. Temperature is a measure of pressure, heat energy, and a number of other influences and is only a thermometer not a measurement of total atmospheric energy. Energy differentials can cause greater temperatures in one region and lower temperatures with more storms in another. If I am psychotic at least I know what Im talking about. As with increasing snowstoems in England, it takes alot of energy to evaporate water and dump it on england half a world away from the gulf. So increasing snopack only supports my argument. 32 degrees is warm for greenland but still cold enough for snow, but you still need energy from the sun to put all that snow in the air. Read a book. So can you derive the gas energy equation? No? Then go back to bl. I love America before global free oppression trade. Psychotic? You are the one advocating giving money to our enemies so you can drive a big truck. You are the people who are supporting your own destructuion. Albeit political or actual suicide. Check mate retard. Anyone else?ogging about fat people or Iraq or something else where opinions matter. You should shut your mouth about science because you people do a disservice to all Americans, Christians, and all in the name of your Saudi Arabian oild producing masters. To me you are fake, politically oriented partisan traitor to the multinational OPEC corporate lobby
Exactly. That is why you need to get in touch with James Hansen at NASA and explain to him that he is completely incompetent.
The lack of warming in the warm, humid tropics is far more important to the earth’s energy balance than the 2-3 degrees of winter warming which has occurred in the very cold, dry Arctic.
The reason that Obama is blocking Keystone is because he doesn’t want us to buy oil from the middle east? You are a genius.
BTW my bicycle gets infinity miles to the gallon.
Again temperature in one location or another s irrelevant if you are not considering the total energy added to the atmosphere. Your inability to comprehend nor address the energy added in evaporation as well as in larger storms shows you failed to grasp the energy equation I asked you to derive. Therefore you are admitting to your own incompetence to offer an opinion.
What planet did you just zoom in from?
I come from America, nonpartisan Christian America that is watching in horror as you animals defend destructive and oppressive materialistic policies in the name of your respective political teams. Get your politics away from science and religion, you are embarrassing yourself and supporting our enemies. Derive the third year undergrad gas energy equation or shut your mouth and admit you sont know what you are talking about.
Steve, where did you pick up this hate spewing loon?
Read a book? Nunya, you read a book, you twit. The argument of total mass has been covered in great detail here and elsewhere, and that’s not what carbonphobes hinge their argument on. But, it is fairly consistent with many arguments Steve has made here. You should go back in the archives and read them before you embarrass yourself further.
Specifically, they hinge their arguments on GHGs. Through your hate-filled spewing I can’t see where you address that critical issue to the argument. And who the heck is the “once skeptic hero”? Sorry, again, you’re on the wrong blog…… hero worship is done by the alarmist side.
Wind speeds…… so you’ve got some empirical data showing such? Oh, you were just spewing nonsense then.
You continue spewing nonsense… “Energy differentials can cause greater temperatures in one region and lower temperatures with more storms in another.”……… and yet, again, we’ve no empirical evidence demonstrating any increase in storm activity.
But, while we’re talking about energy, in your aerospace engineering school, did they mention something silly like the energy conservation laws? If they didn’t bother to mention this, you should get your parents to sue for their money back.
Wow, look at us go!!! Creating mass and energy!!!! We’re all doomed!!! The laws of science have been overturned!!!!
Your illogical and inferior thinking would probably be better appreciated at some place like fashion or celebrity blog…… adults are trying to talk here.
Again you havent derived the energy equation for a gas you worm. The skeptics scientific evidence put forth by your heros, the Koch brothers who started this whole green energy global climate change denial nonsense is peer reviewed and public knowledge available with any google scholar. You do the work. I doubt you can read it, but the nonpartisan and factual data is there for your review. There is no credible skeptic out there that is debating anymore. Only a few exgremists like you guys with no evidence. You are no different than 911 xonspiracy theorists. Derive the equation i mentioned, or admit you dont know what you are talking about. For your info the rate of strong storms has increaed a great deal.
“For your info the rate of strong storms has increaed a great deal.”
lol…..Sure, now show it. Please mention hurricanes in your response. Or tornadoes, or…. what ever. I’m eager to see the data. Because then I could share it with your IPCC, seeing that you’re keeping all of this from the alarmists….. Go here…. http://thegwpf.us4.list-manage.com/track/click?u=c920274f2a364603849bbb505&id=81852aa9db&e=c1a146df99
Chpt. 4…. FAQ 3.1
Gosh you’re a fun chew toy! The Koch bros did this? I never once read any climate discussion put forth by either Koch bros. And you are calling us conspiracy people? You’re truly delusional.
And, again we see you dancing around the GHG theory. Now tell me, do you believe the GHG advocates are FOS or not? Because, mass doesn’t enter into any of their equations that I’ve read. Heck, they don’t really even address atmospheric pressure.
Are you sure you’re at the right blog? Did you escape from the booby-hatch and take a wrong turn? Maybe you need to be talking to Gavin, Hansen, Phil and the boys about this stuff.
Nunya, take your meds and come back when you can have a rational discussion.
I will apologize for one thing though. Using a smartphone keyboard really screws up on Html, wish this blog used Html5, its much less cumbersome.
But anyway, my point is that the skeptics reviewed all the evidence, and came to the same conclusions everyone else in the world did, except Saudi Arabia and you guys: Global climate change is human assisted. Your bashing of your iwn skeptics xscientific conclusions only destroys your own credibility.
How exactly does Obama blocking Keystone hurt Saudi Arabia? ROFLMAO
Okay since I have to school you on thermodynamics then I will give you another lesson in commodities and economics. First, America is currentl the largest consumer of oil, oil is the princile and main source of money for the mideast economy, especially Saudi Arabia. Even if the Keystone pipeline is approved, which I could care less about, it isnt enough oil to affect the price given our consumption. Saudi Arabia will make money on our consumption’s influence on prices even if we consumed all our own oil and didnt import theirs. They will sell to China. Saudi money builds wahhabi mosques, who breed terrorists. The only way to combat this is to abandon oil and the price would plummet. Obama i did not vote for, and he is part of the same system of lies that the antiChrist materialists in the denier debate hails frm. So again you are digressing from the facts that you dont know jack about heat transfer in gases and should not comment about global climate change if you cant derive a third year undergrad thermodynamics energy equation.
So, the argument you’re presenting is because we consume most of the oil, and much of it is sold by Saudis that we then shouldn’t find additional sources or drill our own. Instead, we should do what?
This ought to be fun…..
Watching the NFL this past U.S Winter (from Australia) one could not help noticing that the games were played in freezing temperatures, but were (generally) not interrupted by Snow, (precipitation.) This was a result of the U.S being under the influence of the current One Solar/Earth Year ‘Dry’ Cycle. This ‘Dry’ Cycle has now reached Australia, (early January.) Thus, Colder and Drier – no categorised Cyclones crossed the Australian mainland this ‘season.’ (even though the BoM tried desperately to ‘manufacture’ one.)
Which again is considered along with other natural cycles in the skeptics peer reviewed confirmation of global climate change. Furthermore, as previously stated, temperature at my grandmas house is no indication of anything. Temperature doesnt even measure the total heat in a gas, certainly not total energy. Again, if you cant understand that hot, still air has the same energy as cold fast moving air and dont understand the energy equation for a gas then please go debate drug laws or some other trivial brainless topic. The temperature last year, or in 2003, or at my grandmas means squat in this discussion. The inability of you funny people to seperate temperature from heat energy is embarrassing to me as an American.
Lol, no you’re just embarrassing yourself. I also run a blog, and for the novices, months ago I posted a simple primer, explaining how heat energy moves. http://suyts.wordpress.com/2011/10/09/a-very-simple-and-small-primer/
Note, it is for the novices…… most of the people commenting here are very familiar with these concepts. Why you believe they aren’t is beyond me….. but, assumptions is what lunatics like you are good at.
Do you have any more irrational sweeping generalizations displaying your ignorance you wish to share with us?
After Conservative Christians like myself who studied for years to understand these issues and were shouted down as “unpatriotic” for being against an unjustified war in Iraq, and then again by morons such as yourself who point to their knowledge without answering the question: Can you derive the gas energy equation? You deserve all the ridicule and need to be shouted down with all the ferver of John the Baptist! You CANT because if you did understand the issue you wouldnt e denying the scientific conclusions of your own skeptics peer reviewed report. Derive the equation or shut up because your
opinion of me or this issue is uninformed. There is no more debate. You guys are like the 911 conspiracy theorists now, just like the holocaust deniers and you will hanging your heads low when your children grow to ridicule you for your failure to repent. You have presented no arguments of substance. This I have done, laced with ad hominem and factual information freely available to those who would search scholarly
(Cont) journals and read. And yes, most idiots show they dont understand the issue by continually ignoring the FACT that temperature is no indication of the total energy of the gas. As the increasing snowfall and strength of storms can and will occur with more frequency and a net increase of total energy stored in the atmosphere.
Im doing this for what? To convince you inferior antichrists of what even the least educated European or other nationality knows
Again. If I am embarrassing myself(which I am not because this is simply for the lulz) simply derive the total energy equation, not cut and paste, and explain to me what each variable means. Then show to everyone here how energy can be converted to kinetic from heat. Can you boil water at 50F? Yes, why? How? Explain to these novices how temperature is not necessarily a measure of energy. Once you get these idiots to understand it, then find me a credible scientist with peer reviewed work, who is independent and a skeptic of your view of things who will support your view contact me. Ive already done this, the Koch Brothers Skeptics review of NASAs data was released a couple of months ago. Go read it its free
Now that was for the lulz, get it? Back to hillbilly r tard school for you traitor Saudi butt buddies. For the lulz!
lol, no you’re giving lulz to people. I think I’m going to bookmark this page.
The problem, of course, is sifting through your irrational rants, ad homs, and strawmen to get a what you’re trying to blather. You want me to give you the energy equation for what? The Iraqi war or the 911 events?
But, on a serious note, if you’re going to invoke Christianity, you need to read Romans 14 and then come back. Because, now, you’re not just embarrassing yourself. OR go here….. http://suyts.wordpress.com/2012/03/31/climate-meme-the-christian-thing-to-do/
Enthalpy anyone?
Close. One part of the answer. Carbon slows the heat transfer process. Keep digging…
No need that’s exactly were I thought you were going.
I’m lousy at explaining (I don’t pretend to be a teacher) but I know a good one, look here – http://chiefio.wordpress.com/?s=enthalpy
and in particular here -
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2011/09/27/gives-us-this-day-our-daily-enthalpy/
I enjoy his very lucid style of explanation.
The above had to be someone’s April Fool’s “ad hominem” idea of a joke.
Now lets get back to serious!!!
Did anyone notice the phrase “climate adversity” being applied to refer to 1970′s weather?
Be careful! The warmistas might want to adopt it as a new catchphrase, given that “climate change” has lost whatever sizzle they thought it had.
It is well to remember that major ‘albedo’ climate influence includes explosive volcanic activity and wind-blown dust, as pointed out in Alex S. Gaddes’ book ‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ (1990.) The Climate Commission does not recognise the importance of ‘Volcanic Albedo’ because it seriously compromises Steffen’s ‘Hockey Game.’
The current ‘rain event’ over Fiji, originated from a volcanically active Indonesia. A dissipation and forcing southward of monsoon cloud by the current One Solar/Earth Year ‘Dry’ Cycle. A similar scenario was responsible for recent ‘rain events’ in South Eastern Australia. Nothing to do with El Nino. The majority of the country remains Dry, (and getting Drier,) as per ‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ ‘Dry’ Cycle prediction.
Check this out
termites annually emit about 52.4 billion tonnes of CO2, Humanity’s annual atmospheric contribution is about 22 billion tonnes of CO2.)
I knew it.. instead of Solyndra, we should be dumping money into Terminex
I’d be careful. Termites outnumber us, and I think their total mass is probably as large or larger, too.
Almost, Joe, but the Human Contribution to the atmosphere is far less – in fact almost miniscule.
Check out: http://www.eia.gov/FTPROOT/environment/057304.pdf It is a bit dated, but page 6 has the breakdown of GHG contributions. Your 22 billion tonnes figure is close to correct for human SOURCED GHGs, but the proportion not absorbed (by the oceans) and entering the atmosphere needs to be apportioned vis-a-vis naturally sourced GHGs. So the human CONTRIBUTED input ends up being about 3% of the total atmospheric additions – about 351 million tonnes, far from the 22 billion you mention! Oceanic release is still the greatest source and contribution to atmospheric GHGs!
Temperatures, of course, aren’t listening these days. I think you’ve already seen http://www.colderside.com/Colderside/Temp_%26_CO2.html , but others may not have!