Stefan Rahmstorf, Professor of Physics at Potsdam University, pointed out that for the second time in four years the ice cover at the Arctic in September had been reduced to 4.4 million square kilometres, 40 per cent less than it had been three or four decades earlier. In 2007 the reduction had been explained by odd wind patterns. There had been no odd winds this summer. The ice was also rapidly becoming thinner. There was now a prospect of an ice-free Arctic in summer, decades earlier than had once been believed remotely possible. Not only would several species in the area be in danger. The loss of the reflective mirror at the Arctic would further increase temperature in the northern regions. Already the pace of the Greenland ice shelf melt was becoming unnerving. If it was to melt entirely sometime in the future, ocean levels would rise by seven meters.
Meanwhile, back outside the rabbit hole, NSIDC shows a 50% increase in the extent of thick multi-year ice since 2008, and all satellites show a sharp drop in sea level over the last two years. As far as the “reflective mirror” goes, there is almost no sunshine in the Arctic in September, and the received sunshine is at a very oblique angle. September-March Arctic ice cover has almost zero impact on the earth’s SW radiative balance.
http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20111004_Figure6.png
h/t to Marc Morano
earth in the balance graphs, the real mad hatter
But Steve, ice cover in the winter does has a decent impact on the LW radiative budget. Loss of ice cover means more lost energy via LW radiation…i.e. a negative feedback.
This is especially important because the largest negative area anomalies occur in October.
-Scott
As of 10/31, the Arctic Ocean is already almost stuffed to the brim with sea ice. Meanwhile, Russia is already at least 75% snow covered. Doesn’t sound particularly worrisome, unless an Ice Age is coming. Of course, an Ice Age is entirely consistent with a warming planet, as are record October snowfalls.
This past October, there were actually two record breaking snowfalls in the eastern US, one in early October and the other in late October.
Of course an ice age is consistant with AGW, haven’t you seen the wonderful settled science inspired film “The Day After Tommorrow”?
They have got to justify their grant money somehow.
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2011/10/31/the-cru-gravy-train/#comment-70
Steve when does the change occur that puts the 2 year ice into the 3 and the 3 into the 4 year old ice?
Good question. They change at the end of September, which means their graph is outdated even before they publish it.
Thanks.
I think you’re doing a grave disservice to the mad hatter by associating him with Stefan Rahmstorf….
We should have a birthday party whenever ice gains a new year.