The European Union’s Envisat satellite was launched in 2002. Sea level in the northern hemisphere has declined since they started measuring it, and is now almost 30 mm lower than it was in the middle of 2004.
http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/
The world’s top rated climatologist says that parts of Manhattan will drown by 2008.
While doing research 12 or 13 years ago, I met Jim Hansen, the scientist who in 1988 predicted the greenhouse effect before Congress. I went over to the window with him and looked out on Broadway in New York City and said, “If what you’re saying about the greenhouse effect is true, is anything going to look different down there in 20 years?” He looked for a while and was quiet and didn’t say anything for a couple seconds. Then he said, “Well, there will be more traffic.” I, of course, didn’t think he heard the question right. Then he explained, “The West Side Highway [which runs along the Hudson River] will be under water. And there will be tape across the windows across the street because of high winds. And the same birds won’t be there. The trees in the median strip will change.” Then he said, “There will be more police cars.” Why? “Well, you know what happens to crime when the heat goes up.
When did he say this will happen?
Within 20 or 30 years. And remember we had this conversation in 1988 or 1989.
Does he still believe these things?
Yes, he still believes everything. I talked to him a few months ago and he said he wouldn’t change anything that he said then.
graph of sea levels
Well if Manhattan doesn’t flood, it will surely tip over.
Please could you send (urgently) a copy of this to the econutty HRH Barmy Prince of Wales, care of The Old Folks Home, The Mall, Westminster, England, UK, The World, before he does any more damage with his “wisdom”, because he is apparently aboard the wrong bus.
Over at DotEarth, Joshua Willis of JPL states that the ENVISAT data should be used with ‘caution’. The claim is that it may not be as accurate as JASON.
Is JPL involved with JASON? Why yes they are. It would be interesting to get the ENVISAT team’s response to this statement.
Assuming they both suffer from similar uncertainty issues, the fact that they disagree by a factor of more than 3 simply increases the uncertainty band even further. JASON gives 3 mm/y +/- 3 mm, ENVISAT gives 1 mm/yr +/- 3 mm, so we think sea level is rising anywhere from -4 mm/yr to +8 mm/yr.
Maybe its time to splash the satellites and install some sort of reliable sensors at the shore where people actually care about sea level.
“Maybe its time to splash the satellites and install some sort of reliable sensors at the shore where people actually care about sea level.”
We have already tried that but we had to ignore the results as they were lower than the sats.
Tide gauges show more like 0.5mm per year. That is why the IPCC decided to switch measurement systems – because the tide gauges weren’t generating the required bad news.
Real science?
That graph you showed has a vertical axis that totals 3.5 cm (or 35 mm) it is obvious to anyone who knows how to read a graph that the difference between 2004 and now is about 3mm.
How did you manage to turn 3mm into 30mm?
It is very tricky reading graphs, eh? The peak in 2004 was 49.5 cm and the current is 46.5 cm. That is 30 mm.
Good one. Any more lessons?
Well that’s Karma for ya. Since he failed in this mission Hari- Khali may be back.
The old TOPEX/Poseidon claimed to have an accuracy of +/- 3 to 4 centimeters so I never really thought the 1.5 to 3 milimeter variations in sea-level were to be taken very seriously.
“The world’s top rated climatologist says that parts of Manhattan will drown by 2008.”
If only we’d have listened! sarc off/
Really though, what happened to sea level rise – I mean the catastrophic rise. I’m not asking rhetorically – what happened?
There are (obviously) ports all around our world handling shipping trade as well as supporting massive population centers. Think Hamburg, San Pedro (Port of Los Angeles) Boston Harbor, Galveston, Hong Kong, (http://www.discoverhongkong.com/eng), et al. Intelligent humans must be supporting these enormous ventures. Why aren’t they flooding?
Does anyone know of a single Port of Call that is suffering from uncontrollable, unadaptable, flooding from sea-level rise? No? May I proffer a conjecture?
Ports of Call make tons of money. Much motivation to keep them operational. Sea level rises. Adaptive strategies are implemented. Keep the goods flowing – keep the good times rolling.
Anyone got a problem with this?
It’s elementary science everyone. As the Northern Hemisphere is at the top of the globe all of the ocean water is running to the bottom. Haven’t you been paying any attention at all! We are having floods in Australia because of this. take back your damned water.
Graphs are fun, aren’t they? You can show a graph of sea level rising for 6 out of 8 years and then claim “Sea Level Falling For Almost a Decade!”.
Very droll.
I hope that was a joke. I used the entire Envisat record, which shows that sea level has been falling for almost a decade.
Hopefully you are not as daft as you pretend to be.
The graph shows sea level rising for over 6 out of the 8 years (in fact less than 8 years) and then falling for about a year. That does not constitute “falling for almost a decade”. At the most it constitutes “falling for one year out of 8″.
Do you invest using that strategy? “It went up a little in 2007 for a little while, so it is a great stock.”
For the low down on satellites and sea level measurement go to the sadly missed John Daly’s site: http://www.john-daly.com/altimetry/topex.htm