Kevin O’Neill says:
We haven’t seen DMI Arctic Temperature graphs in awhile, SG. Why?
Is it because they look like this?
This is a Kevin O’Neill classic. There is a patch of not as cold as normal air north of Russia, because the Arctic air has been mixing with air from the lower latitudes and creating record cold in Alaska, Asia and Europe.
It is called thermodynamics Kevin. Energy is neither created nor destroyed.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/sfctmpmer_01a.fnl.anim.html
Paradoxically if the Arctic is at +15C anomaly and the Subarctic at -10C anomaly, they might as well be at the same temperature and yet be shown with wildly different colors
@MM: the arctic has a winter albedo similar to the subarctic. What happens if the arctic *summer* albedo becomes the same as the subarctic?
The Barentz and Kara Seas have not frozen over yet this winter. As Neven says in his post:
The last paragraph is mine – not Neven’s
Kevin, the spring/summer arctic albedo has been depreciating well over a decade now…… what’s happening to the global temps? Nothing.
Is it possible for you guys to move from theory to observation every once in a while?
Only if something is melting.
I assume you never actually read any scientific papers – otherwise you wouldn’t make such an ill-informed statement.
Effects of a Warming Arctic already seen:
Each of these in turn has influence on weather and climate. It’s not a coincidence that sea-ice volume has fallen into a spiral. It’s not a coincidence we’ve seen both the NW and NE passages open. It’s not a coincidence that MYI is now limited to narrow areas tucked against either Greenland or the Canadian Archipelago. It’s not a coincidence that 1st year ice only accumulates 60% of the thickness it did 10 or 15 years ago.
There’s been a steady stream of literature the last few years examining exactly these connections; much of what see today was spelled out as a likely consequence of observed trends. The physical mechanisms were examined and described.
Try reading the following:
Jaiser et al
Overland & Wang
Screen & Simmonds
Dr Jennifer Francis
Dr Judah Cohen
Petoukhov and Semenov
Just read the last 3 or 4 years worth of research. That should catch you up on the subject.
If you believe that the ice is thin and already melting in February, then you won’t have any problem betting that the 2012 summer minimum will be a record low.
Am I correct, or is all your talk just bullshit?
Yeah Kevin 260 K is mighty balmy. I might build my winter home there.
If you check in 1990, there was a big “warming” early in the year then too.
Recent temps on DMI show its back down close to average, of course we don’t know if its going to stay down there.
I think you missed the point, Dave. I made no claims that it *meant* anything.
SG: is the one that trots these out every time it exceeds the average by a tenth of a degree. I was just pointing out that he hasn’t shown it in a long time and (sarcastically) asking why?
Of course I know why – it doesn’t fit the narrative he wants people to believe. He only believes in showing one side of any issue.
I think you missed the point, Dave. I made no claims that it *meant* anything.
Exactly my point from several days ago. Nothing you have said to date passes the “so what?” test.
Where is your evidence?
I checked out 1990, not that I thought you might be fibbing a bit – Side-by-side comparison
Not exactly comparable.
So what would that make the temperature in Tallahassee?
snow dude….snow….
Al Gore travelling to the Antarctic Peninsula caused all the coldness to follow him there whilst all the warmness went the other way (Universal law of the Gore effect)
I prefer to see it like this. From above
http://policlimate.com/weather/current/gfs_water_art.html
It is not that difficult to warm the Arctic, it’s not That big. It’s much more difficult for the Arctic to cool the lower latitudes .
I see the Arctic as a refrigerator. As long as you leave the door closed it will be cold inside. But you need an awful lot of energy to cool the kitchen with the door open. Of course, in the fridge it will be a lot warmer.
The Greenland ice sheet alone would raise global sea level by 7 meters.
The arctic’s not that big, doesn’t take much to warm it up.
I sure hope Robertvdl is wrong.
Yawn. How long would it take to melt ice 2 miles thick?
How much energy is needed to melt The Greenland ice sheet ? And even if The Greenland ice sheet would melt we would have enough time to adapt.Sea level needed the last 7000 years to rise 10m ,melting the ice of the lower latitudes when it was warmer than today.You and I would not live to see it not our children nor our grandchildren nor etc .That is not what we are talking about.We are talking about the sea ice formation in winter.We are talking about short periods of warm air going nord in winter and cold air going south. And yes this will be the reason for less sea ice growth at lower latitudes . So what !
Robert – *You’re* the one that said:
“It is not that difficult to warm the Arctic, it’s not That big.”
Not me.
I was simply pointing out I hope you’re wrong and showing *why* I hoped you’re wrong.
Just let me see it again.
THE ARCTIC IS NOT THAT BIG
Something wrong with that ?
IT IS NOT DIFFICULT TO WARM THE ARCTIC
From -40 to -20 is warming but it is also cooling. Earth is cooling the warm air from lower latitudes . That is the problem, lower latitudes getting colder. That is how an ICE AGE starts. And yes I hope I am wrong !
Interesting you didn’t link to the graph I linked to – one that you’ve linked to plenty of times in the past. When *is* the last time the Arctic Temperatures -Daily Mean Temperatures North of 80 degree North. was actually below normal? My eyesight is not as good as it used to be; is that 15 degrees above normal in January I see on the graph?
I’ve been concentrating my reading lately around ‘ice-on’ ‘ice-off’ dates for northern temperate lakes. Lake Mendota is a few dozen miles from my house. They’ve got records extending back to 1856. Interesting graph of Lake Mendota’s ‘ice-on’ dates – another hockey stick.
The 2011 date (not on the graph) is January 14.
The ice is frayed on the eastern side, but is probably extremely solid on the western side.
The ice in the Bering is pretty much irrelevant. You would think that the ice in the Beaufort must be getting thicker – that would help. The Atlantic sector is a concern because anything that makes the central pack smaller, makes it more mobile – that doesn’t help. At times last year the landfast ice on the Canadian Archipelago ‘heaved’ off the coast. I guess it wasn’t really landfast.
It’s impossible to really predict anything, weather becomes the dominant variable during any given arctic summer, but a complete melt out of the Russian side is again looking likely. I’m not optimistic. Everything looks primed for another big melt out. I wouldn’t be surprised if 2007 is exceeded this year.
ROFL
Low extent in the Chukchi Sea has been blamed on warm water coming in the Bering Strait. Good luck with that this summer.
Ice moves from the Pacific side to the Atlantic side, which means that you have your Arctic priorities exactly reversed.
And your record regarding arctic sea-ice is …. laughable.
It’s recovering! Look, it’s recovering! See everyone, it’s recovering!
Yeah. Tell me SG, will we ever see pre-2007 minimum extent levels again in our lifetimes? If so, when? Oh, wait, weren’t we already supposed to have recovered according to you? (and Marc Moron DOH!)h/t
Sea ice minimums have been higher than 2007 every year since 2007.
What a dumb question.
The question, in case you can’t read, was: Will we ever see *PRE-2007* arctic minimums again?
Have we *recovered to PRE-2007 minimum extent levels? No. Is it likely? No. Are you evading the question? Yes.
Typical.
PS Another comment awaiting moderation for hours and hours.
February 7, 2012 at 3:21 pm
Kevin:
Will they stop running the icebreakers through the are to keep the ice clear for shipping?
Will the wind patterns change to be the same as they were 30 years ago?
Will the weather patterns repeat those of 5,000 years ago or are they following those from 120K years ago?
When you discuss conditions related to the satellite observations of the Arctic sea ice, you are talking about natural weather noise!
There is not enough data to know WTF is going on besides weather.
SG: It is called thermodynamics Kevin. Energy is neither created nor destroyed.
Interesting that you would choose to lecture on thermodynamics, when you obviously don’t understand it. The law of conservation of energy applies to an isolated system. Are you claiming the earth is an isolated system.
If so, you’re a kook.
If not, you should correct yourself and apologize for lecturing from ignorance.
Unless you are a Trenberth kook, Earth is nearly a steady state system – which means that the energy balance is conserved.
Even so, your comment is ridiculous. Not even Kevin T would be silly enough to suggest such large changes in the energy balance over such short periods of time.
No, the earth is NOT a steady state system. The earth-sun system is nearly a steady state system. Even then, it’s *nearly* a steady state system. Your wrong in *multiple* ways.
What I pointed out is your statement regarding thermodynamics is WRONG. The earth is not an isolated system. We gain energy from the sun every day. This is the very reason we have dynamic changes in weather over short periods.
Besides, I never claimed *anything* – I pointed you to THIS GRAPH.
You then ran a DIFFERENT graph and wrote this post. Why not run the graph you were pointed to – you’ve ran it many times before?
You crack me up.
You are arguing about angels dancing on the head of a pin. It is warm in the Arctic because air is mixing with lower latitudes that are running extremely cold.
The tiny energy imbalances which confound your mind – are irrelevant to this discussion.
Fact: The earth is not an isolated system.
Fact: You were wrong in saying so.
Mis-stating the laws of thermodynamics is now “dancing on the head of a pin?”
You crack me up. No acknowledgement that the entire premise of your post is wrong. No acknowledgement of your mis-statement of the law of conservation of energy. And no apology for implying *I* don’t know the laws when it’s obvious I know them at least as well, if not better, than you.
The tiny flux changes (TSI, albedo, etc) are not important on a short basis, but the fact the earth is NOT an isolated system and imports daily energy from the sun is intrinsic to the fact we have dynamic daily/weekly weather variations
And why do you run THIS GRAPH a dozen or more times during the year – but refuse to run it (or answer why you haven’t run it) when asked?
Exactly how many angels can dance on the head of a pin?
High Arctic temperatures are interesting in the summer as an indication of melt, and in the autumn as an indication of how rapidly the ice is freezing.
In the summer – the temp never varies. As I’ve pointed out to you numerous times. The only fluctuations seen in summer are all within the uncertainty limits.
The rest of the year, fall thru spring, is when you can actually see variations. The Kara and the Barentz have actually been *melting* the last couple of weeks – in *February*. That’s unheard of – it’s one of the most remarkable arctic events in our lifetimes. 2007 *should* have been a wake up call. Obviously some people just hit the ‘Snooze’ button.
Kevin,
Keep talking. I’m enjoying watching you making a fool out of yourself.
In your ice free Arctic summer, why doesn’t the temperature go up?
BTW – Venice is frozen over. One of the most remarkable events proving global cooling. Surely a wake up call to you Kevin.
SG: Coming from someone that believes Earth is nearly a steady state system – which means that the energy balance is conserved. I think I’ll do another guest post for Really Sciency on that one.
I may even see if I can get Dr Roy to chip in – I’m sure he’ll back you up – NOT. I think that’s what I’ll do, just elicit some quotes from various people regarding the statement Earth is nearly a steady state system – which means that the energy balance is conserved. and let readers judge from the responses how well you understand thermodynamics.
Kevin,
Please keep demonstrating your ignorance and dissonance. Anyone who had completed one class in meteorology would understand that cold air plunging south from the Arctic has to be replaced by warm air from somewhere else.
Your failure to grasp this concept shows just how clueless you are.
Kevin,
I would like to repeat my questions from yesterday.
Even in the highly unlikely event that you are completely right and we are completely wrong, what do you propose? Cap and Trade with floor traders in a corrupt futures market siphoning off most of the money for themselves? Raising taxes and energy prices dramatically in a weak economy? Confiscating cars? Turning off the electricity? Preventing people from traveling? In order to have a tiny effect on climate, you would probably have to do all that and more.
Then there are unintended consequences. Can you really be sure that the weather will improve and guarantee that a Dust Bowl or Ice Age won’t be triggered by your attempts to regulate the climate or just happen naturally? They have happened before.
Big money normally attracts big corruption. That is human nature. My ears perk up when I hear that we have to do this, that and the other at a very high price and have to do it “right now” to save the planet. While greatly embellishing their cause in a hysterial fashion.
Please share with us your wisdom and insight with respect to what needs to be done to save the planet, without reducing our standard of living to that of North Korea or worse.
Andy – short answer, I have to run, I’ll revisit in more fully later.
Speaking as a U.S. citizen, I would move all the wasted resources we spend on the “War On Some Drugs” and move them into renewable energies/technologies; directly into retrofitting government buildings and additional research funding.
Likewise, I would get the hell out of the middle East. the only reason we’ve had soldiers dying in Iraq and Afghanistan is because of oil. Anyone that thinks otherwise just doesn’t understand US foreign policy. Remove the need for that foreign oil and you remove the need to even *care* what happens except in a strictly humanitarian sense.
Cap and trade has worked fairly well with pollution, I believe – though I’ve never really researched it. I’m sure we could develop some sort of incentivized system that makes it *profitable* for business to reduce carbon usage.
Go back to the late 60′s early 70′s advertising campaigns to *conserve* energy. During that first oil shock we treated conservation as a patriotic endeavor. We’ve lost that ethic.
I would also build a new generation of nuclear plants.
@Kevin: “I would also build a new generation of nuclear plants.”
I agree wholeheartedly with that … especially if they use Thorium.
Ah, yes! Of course! When the Sun warms, the Earth cools, and vice versa. Gosh, who knew that science was so simple? Kevin Om’eill sure did. Thanks, Kevin.
Kevin – your reply has little to do with my comment. You’re also unaware that a mild Jan could turn into a cold Feb and so on and so forth.
@MM: Your comment seemed to imply that they balance each other out. My response was to show that even if the temperatures were identical, the ramifications can be significant. A warmer arctic has many more implications than a cooler sub-arctic.
Kevin to planet earth:
OR VICE VERSA!
What *is* the problem exactly? Hasn’t the Arctic been ice free before?
Yes, approximately 45 million years ago. Tens of millions before anything we even recognize as our ancestors walked this planet. Do you believe it wise to gamble and see if we can thrive in such climates?
I’d be more worried about a large stone that hits the earth or a super volcano or Obama to be re-elected or people who freeze to death in Europe or a car accident but not if the melting season has already started in the Barentsz and Kara Seas when we know the reason why the ice is not growing at the moment.
@Robert: Yeah, that damn Obama killed Bin Laden and saved the US auto industry. Scumbag.
I can’t remember what happened under that previous President …. whadthey call him? Dubya? Oh that’s right, he started a couple of wars, turned surpluses into massive deficits, and watched the financial system and overall economy practically meltdown. Now there’s a guy I can admire.
Yeah, that’s the ticket.
Did you forget that the NASDAQ dropped 70% during Clinton’s last six months in office – and destroyed tax revenues?
Destroyed revenues? I remember someone touting how his Tax cuts wouldn’t affect the deficit, that it was dangerous to run surpluses. Look up the CBO numbers. How much of the deficits are *still* attributed to the Bush tax cuts. Own up to that and we can talk.
“he Joint Committee on Taxation estimated that the 2001 tax legislation (the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act) would cause government revenues to be 107.7 billion less than they would have been in the absence of the legislation in 2004, 107.4 billion less in 2005 and 135.2 billion less in 2006. The committee’s estimates for the effect of the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 were that it would reduce otherwise projected revenues by 148.7 billion in 2004, 82.2 billion in 2005 and 20.7 billion in 2006.”
http://www.factcheck.org/taxes/supply-side_spin.html
Where do I mention that I agree with the last scumbag (Dubya) in the white house. The ‘Left’ and ‘Right’ Are Only Two Wings of the Same Bird of Prey. Guess who are the prey.They only want power and they get it by creating fear. Most politicians and most scientifics are tools in the hands of the small group in power.One of the real problems we face is indeed the MAN MADE global warming scam. Those who think CO2 is the problem, think again.
Kevin:
Your comment about the last time the Arctic was Ice free being 45MYA is total Chicken Excrement. The present Ice age started about 38 MYA when Antarctica moved over the south pole and the polar vortex formed, which lead to the cooling of Antarctica.
Even NOAA /and NSIDC admit there were periods in the last 5K years when the Arctic was ice free. There is evidence for an ice free Arctic as recently as 1.5KYA.
You are reading the wrong fairy tales.
What are we gambling exactly? If Arctic ice went down 8in a period of stable global temps, what would we be supposed to be doing? What measure will confirm if anything we would be doing were relevant if not effective?
@MM: Do you realize the temperature difference between glacial & full-interglacial? These hugely disparate climatic regimes are characterized by about 5C difference in global temperature. That’s all, 5C.
We’ve added what, 1.2C and in the pipeline for 1C more and contemplating an additional ???C by 2150. Think about that. The gamble is we don’t know the ramifications of adding that much energy added to the system.
Glacial & full-interglacial are not the Earth’s ‘normal’ climate. What would be wrong with the normal climate? This morning it was – 1.0ºC now it is + 3.0ºC (Barcelona). Inside the house it’s +18ºC . What do I do? Phone my wife not to come home because the ramifications of adding that much energy to the system. Would it be better to open the windows?
@Robert: Are you dense? Those are the *extremes* – 5C separates the extremes. If you add that much energy to the system you’ll never see ‘normal’ again – at least not in any time reference frame that matters on our scales.
Kevin:
You are FOS!
Glacial Maximum and Intergalcial optimum are polar and sub polar extremes, not global. During cooling the cold moves South and during warming the cold retreats further North.
The difference is not the increase of warming but the reduction of warming. There is a reason they consider a certain time period in recent history s the Holocene THERMAL OPTIMUM.
A clue for you; we are not experiencing a Thermal OPTIMUM!
Come back and talk about it when we are!
This is what you remind me of:
The one dancing!
Normal are the 500 million years which were 10C warmer, with less or no ice.
http://www.real-science.com/nasa-2011-9th-hottest-year-record
Holy crap, I’m dizzy now, gotta go lay down. This Kevin guy sure is good at talking in circles. The contradictions and utter garbage spews forth is rather astounding. Wow…
Worthless rhetoric. Can’t actually point to a contradiction – because there isn’t one. Put squidly down as another blowhard.
ROFLMAO
Yeah, uh so you’re saying that such energy has been added to and removed from the system many times in the past, but it would be dangerous to let it happen again?
No, that’s not a contradiction, it’s just stupid.
Oh, God. More of this pointless bullshit from “Professor Wikipedia” about research. Starving a few million Ukranians worked fairly well with Russian Patriotism, I believe — though I’ve never really researched it.