The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has a new report out today concluding that global warming will make heat waves, droughts, floods, and other extreme weather events much more common in the decades to come.
We don’t understand what drives weather well enough to make even semi-accurate forecasts more than 72 hours in advance, but the IPCC claims that they know what the weather will be like in future decades.
Weather is driven largely by ocean circulation patterns like ENSO, which no one has shown any skill at forecasting more than a couple of months in advance. Hansen forecast a strong El Nino for the summer and we got the opposite. A few years ago Trenberth was blaming El Nino on CO2 and we had forecasts of permanent El Nino.
Once again, the IPCC is engaging in blatant scientific fraud. These people have no clue what the weather will be like in future decades and have done grossly inadequate research of what the weather was like in past decades.
4. El Niño Becomes Permanent
If El Niño–a periodic disruption of the ocean and atmosphere in the tropical Pacific–becomes the average state of the region’s climate as global warming progresses, widespread shifts in precipitation patterns (above, homes slide into the sea during El Niño storms in Pacifica, California) will ensue, said a majority of scientists who responded to a climate survey released on March 16, 2009.
Such changes could bring increased drought to Southeast Asia and the Amazon Basin, experts say.
Likewise, the South American coast would likely be heavily slammed with increased floods and changes in the marine food web, which could hurt many fisheries, the study said.