NSIDC told us three years that climate models project that warm autumn temperatures in the Arctic will just get worse.
In the past five years, the Arctic has shown a pattern of strong low-level atmospheric warming over the Arctic Ocean in autumn because of heat loss from the ocean back to the atmosphere. Climate models project that this atmospheric warming, known as Arctic amplification, will become more prominent in coming decades and extend into the winter season.
Autumn temperatures this year north of 80N have been the coldest since at least 2001, and possibly since 1996.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
NSIDC reported this week that ice growth in October was 40% faster than normal.
Arctic sea ice extent increased rapidly through October. Ice extent during October 2011 increased at an average rate of 114,900 square kilometers (44,360 square miles) per day, about 40% faster than the average growth rate for October 1979 to 2000.
I have yet to see any evidence that climate models serve any purpose – other than sucking up vast amounts of coal-fired electricity.
Models are great for determining when it’s time to adjust the observed temps upwards.
Our models aren’t quite right, but given more time & the money to buy a new computer, we’ll get even better. Please donate generously.
” strong low-level atmospheric warming over the Arctic Ocean in autumn because of heat loss from the ocean back to the atmosphere. Climate models project that this atmospheric warming, known as Arctic amplification, will become more prominent ”
This cannot be correct conceptually .
Gotta be bassackwards .
Tonight at 8:00pm est everyone’s favorite movie is on FX, The Day After Tomorrow.
Don’t need no damn models. Just watch the movie if you want to know what will happen to the Earth. It as accurate as any computer model.
Hi from Australia,Is there anyway in finding out if the land ice is expanding as well or dose it matter.I use your information to show alarmists here in Australia when they say the ice is decreasing.One said is it land ice or sea ice that is expanding though i believe it is all the same.I do know though that there are thousands of underwater volcanoes up in the north and there is a volcano called Katla that is making some noise so if land ice is smaller it would be the heat from volcanoes that be causing it?Any help would be appreciated mate.Be safe and keep up the great work.
Hey Joe! This may explain a few things…
“ScienceDaily (June 25, 2008) — A research team led by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) has uncovered evidence of explosive volcanic eruptions deep beneath the ice-covered surface of the Arctic Ocean. Such violent eruptions of splintered, fragmented rock–known as pyroclastic deposits — were not thought possible at great ocean depths because of the intense weight and pressure of water and because of the composition of seafloor magma and rock.”
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080625140649.htm
The models have no input for this heat, and noone knows how extensive and frequent these eruptions may be. Safe to say that magma is hotter than atmosphereic CO2, even the evil and magical manmade kind.
Funny.. you say the models are useless, then show us data generated from a model:
“In the plot, the red curve is based on the average 2 m temperatures north of 80
degree North, from the twice daily ECWMF analyses. These are gradually becoming
better and more detailed, as the NWP model system at ECMWF is improved with
time. That is why the name shift with time (e.g. from T799 to T1279 in year
2010).
The green curve is based on ERA40 data for the period 1958 to 2002. ERA40 data
are in fact analyses, made in the same way as above, but done as a hind-cast,
using a fixed version of the NWP model”
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/documentation/arctic_mean_temp_data_explanation_newest.pdf
Then you talk about the rapid freezing of the arctic without even mentioning:
“Overview of conditions
Average ice extent for October 2011 was 7.10 million square kilometers (2.74 million square miles), 2.19 million square kilometers (846,000 square miles) below the 1979 to 2000 average. This was 330,000 square kilometers (127,000 square miles) above the average for October 2007, the lowest extent in the satellite record for that month. By the end of October, ice extent remained below the 1979 to 2000 average in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas and in the Barents and Kara seas. Extent was near average in the East Greenland Sea. New ice growth has closed both the Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route.”
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
So, it seems that you either have no idea what you are talking about, or a willingly LYING in order to push your anti-science crap on an unsuspecting public. Shame on you!
Blah blah blah… I do modeling for a living. Did I say that all models are useless? Don’t waste my time with mindless straw men.