NSIDC told us three years that climate models project that warm autumn temperatures in the Arctic will just get worse.
In the past five years, the Arctic has shown a pattern of strong low-level atmospheric warming over the Arctic Ocean in autumn because of heat loss from the ocean back to the atmosphere. Climate models project that this atmospheric warming, known as Arctic amplification, will become more prominent in coming decades and extend into the winter season.
Autumn temperatures this year north of 80N have been the coldest since at least 2001, and possibly since 1996.
NSIDC reported this week that ice growth in October was 40% faster than normal.
Arctic sea ice extent increased rapidly through October. Ice extent during October 2011 increased at an average rate of 114,900 square kilometers (44,360 square miles) per day, about 40% faster than the average growth rate for October 1979 to 2000.
I have yet to see any evidence that climate models serve any purpose – other than sucking up vast amounts of coal-fired electricity.