Alaska has blown away all records for sea ice this winter. Four of the five iciest years around Alaska have been since 2007. Look for the MSM to respond by publishing stories about drowning Polar Bears who can’t find any ice.
University of Illinois – Cryosphere Today
This graph seems to indicate a prompt (opposite) response of the sea ice to the intensity of the solar radiation in the last 5 years. Probable cause: a drier atmosphere resulting from CO2 accumulation (not saying “warming”, but “drying”). Then, the expected tendency of even lower radiation from the Sun in the next (few? many?) years will probably bring even greater extents of sea ice area to Alaska (and everywhere). In direct relation to solar radiation, glaciers everywhere will probably rebound in the near future.
The data from the south pole also show a steady (average) growth since 1980
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.antarctic.png
The Antarctic continent is a different world entirely. The tendency was present even during the last two decades of last century, when the solar cycles were strong, but the peaks at 2008 and 2010 are very pronounced.
I’m going to guess that the cause has nothing to do with CO2 because seriously, how much CO2 do you have to pump into the atmosphere to affect the formation of *tens of thousands* of square miles of ice? How would that explain the recent years of CO2 that was just as high, yet Arctic ice was at a minimum? It’s contradictory!
The simplest answer is usually the correct one: Arctic ice is at a maximum because the planet is getting cooler.
I agree with your last sentence, IMO that’s the bottom line. My point was more in regard the promptness of the answer of the ice cap cover to the oscillations of solar radiation. I see a quite perfect correlation in the above graph in the last few years, don’t you, including the decrease during 2011- which so far has been the strongest period of the present cycle.
My guess is that the peak of cycle C24 happened at the end of last year and solar radiation will start a downward trend from now on.
For example,
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/03/02/the-sun-is-still-in-a-funk-sunspot-numbers-are-dropping-when-they-should-be-rising/
A strong peak in C23 happened in 2001 and was followed by another less intense one 1 year later, but the downward trend started in 2001. I believe this corresponds to what happened at the end of 2011 in the present cycle.
If this is true and the prompt response continues, the ice cap will reach new record highs every year, for at least time that the solar minimum lasts, and we’ll soon be back to the pre-warming levels, in the Arctic. The Antarctic ice cap is already increasing steadily.
Regarding the dryness of the atmosphere I really have the impression that it’s getting drier (less cloud cover at least) and the following results seem to corroborate this
http://iceagenow.info/2012/02/cloud-tops-dropping-closer-earth-lead-global-cooling/
and
http://www.c3headlines.com/2011/03/peer-reviewed-study-finds-that-co2-induced-warming-causes-atmosphere-to-hold-less-water-vapor.html
Another possible cause of more immediate response the polar glaciers to solar radiation could the the waning of the magnetosphere that seems to be accelerating recently. This could affect cloud cover and the ice cap indirectly.
@ F. Guimaraes -
On what criteria do you base your “drier atmosphere resulting from CO2 accumulation” proposition?
Such a statement contradicts the findings of a paper published in Journal Nature in 2007 that blames anthropogenic forcing for ‘increased’ annual average precipitation in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere including most areas of the arctic (other areas of the arctic having insufficient data). The study covered the period of 1925-1999. Realizing the most recent data in the published study is now over a decade old and Steve’s post looks at relatively current data, if anthropogenic forcing was blamed for increased annual precipitation in the study timeframe, how would one now blame anthropogenic forcing on current reduced annual precipitation in the exact same location?
Source – http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6912527.stm
A NASA/GISS study in 1997 echoes the above publication’s findings of increased precipitation: “We find that in much of the middle and high latitudes, precipitation has systematically increased over the 20th Century.”
Source – http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/delgenio_02/
Regardless, as much as alarmists move the bar (global warming, climate change and now I presume global drying) nature can’t produce and sustain ice without a very cold environment. Is the alarmist position now that anthropogenic forcing does not cause warming? If not, the question remains; If increased CO2 causes warming and increased precipitation in the mid/high latitudes, why have 4 of the 5 iciest years for Alaska occured in the last seven years?
I’ll repeat here part of my previous post:
“Regarding the dryness of the atmosphere I really have the impression that it’s getting drier (less cloud cover at least) and the following results seem to corroborate this
http://iceagenow.info/2012/02/cloud-tops-dropping-closer-earth-lead-global-cooling/
and
http://www.c3headlines.com/2011/03/peer-reviewed-study-finds-that-co2-induced-warming-causes-atmosphere-to-hold-less-water-vapor.html ”
The above results go against the AGW/IPCC prediction that increased CO2 would cause more precipitation and humidity of the atmosphere, as you cited in your references.
The opposite seems to be happening, a negative feedback effect instead of the positive one predicted by IPCC, and some are saying that the cause of the observed increase in snowfall (in many places) and even sea ice extent (now in both poles) is not the increased humidity but the colder temperatures indeed.
I still believe that the atmosphere is drier today that it was few decades ago. Is this related with CO2? Possibly, because the response of vegetation is a very important part of the dynamic equilibrium that creates the atmosphere. In this respect, please take a look at this very interesting interview of Freeman Dyson, from Oak Ridge, 5 years ago
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTSxubKfTBU
and the 2nd part
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k69HUuyI5Mk
At about 3:00 of the 1st video he talks about the central aspect of vegetation in the CO2 problem, saying that “… the atmosphere is the “tail” and the ground is the “dog” in this case … ”
Is CO2 a very important part or is it’s just a negligible “perturbation”? I really don’t know, if the influence of CO2 is negligible then what is causing the dryness?
Magnetic polar shift? Some other natural negative feedback?…
The prompt (negative) response of the ice caps to solar radiation appears to be related with the dryness problem.
The Pacific has cooled somewhat with serious rainfall in Eastern Australia for 3 years now coinciding with LaNina events. So the Bering Sea is bound to show this phenomenum while the Pacific remains in LaNina pattern.
Hansen is praying for a huge ElNino to show some warming effect – funny how the doom sayers want warming whilst pretending it is catastrophic.
Another LaNina would be inconvenient for them – lets wait & see.
Most ice in Alaska but no Ice on any of the lakes and even small ponds ALL winter in NJ except for on week when they were covered around MLK Day. In all the years of living in NJ for my entire life this has been the first I can rember that all the lakes and ponds were ice free all winter.(except one week) Happy Easter everyone.
I came across this article a while back and have posted it a few times looking for responses. Anyone think this will play a roll in the future with co2 and plants. I have noticed the past few years the air in NJ seems to be dryer. I know the sun has put out less energy also.
Rising CO2 is causing plants to release less water to the atmosphere, researchers say
http://newsinfo.iu.edu/news/page/normal/17577.html
Last winter in the Northeast was very cold and snowy. Did a big CO2 bubble move in this winter?
I believe we need to look at the big picture here. If the sea ice at the poles is rebounding as it is now in both hemispheres, then I think is just a matter of time before the entire planet starts to follow the same path in a more homogeneous way.
The above graph of the ice extent in Alaska and the following one about the S. Pole
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.antarctic.png
clearly show a cooling trend in the recent years, coinciding with the new (low) solar cycle.
One winter of ice free ponds does not prove anything. There have been warmer and dryer (in terms of snowfall) winters. You’re ignorant. Do some research before making a comment like that. Two winters ago you were buried in snow. Last winter didn’t have as much snow but it es colder than 09-10. So now that one winter was warmer than average, global warming is the culprit?
We were the only part of the northern hemisphere that had an above-average temperature reading this winter. The only area.
Global warming is not real.